Week 6 SEC Preview: LSU – Auburn and A&M-Arkansas highlight the show
This week it’s normal one of the craziest games on the SEC Calendar: LSU vs Auburn.
We’ve had burning buildings, missed kicks at the end, last-second touchdowns and the end of Les Miles’ tenure. The Geaux Tigers have won 3 in row and 7 of the last ten, but of those last three games, they’ve been settled by a TOTAL of eight points.
With no-one thinking about both sides seriously, it should be fun to at least watch, praying for a Big 12 game to once again break out in Jordan-Hare (if you’ve got the over!).
Elsewhere, one of the SEC West’s most underrated rivalries takes place at Kyle Field instead of Arlington, which is unfortunate bearing in mind just how awesome it’s been in JerryWorld. That’s Texas A&M vs Arkansas. Then there’s Georgia, primed for a trip to a Kentucky team who must be licking their wounds after getting trumped by Missouri, oh, and there’s Alabama against Mississippi State, where you’ll hear the name “Waddle” mentioned a lot. A lot. A lot. We’ve also got Missouri going to the University of Florida, which has been its own little COVID-19 hotspot recently, and Ole Miss playing Vanderbilt, which won’t warrant anyone’s attention aside from the betting community and die-hard fans of both sides.
So here are the games we’re interested in….
- LSU (-3, O/U 63 1/2) at Auburn
Both sides have been pretty unimpressive this season – it’s the first game since 2001 that both sides are unranked. But this is why it’s going to be interesting. Firstly: The flaws which should make it even more fun, especially bearing in mind that it’s the defenses. Oh, and if hadn’t mentioned it….it’s LSU vs Auburn. It’s so much fun.
Oh, and about the sides? LSU will be looking forward to more of TJ Finley, who grabbed his chance against South Carolina with both hands. Auburn will be another level for him. He’ll be asked to spread it out a lot (we love you, Terrace Marshall and Arik Gilbert), and that’s going to give Kevin Steele fits. But defense is still a problem. Although they beat Carolina 52-24, Carolina put up 403 yards and were pretty impressive at times – especially when running the ball (Kevin Harris had 126 yards and 2 TDs on just 12 touches). And what’s Auburn’s strength? Running it. Tank Bigsby’s going to cause the leaky LSU front fits (he leads the SEC in making defensive players missed tackles with 22). Oh, and if Bo Nix can do something that’s not braindead this game, it’s going to be fun.
PREDICTION: LSU wins by 3 in a crazy one, because why not? LSU 48, Auburn 45.
2. Arkansas at Texas A&M (-13, Over/Under 54 1/2)
Texas A&M hasn’t lost to Arkansas since it’s been in the SEC, winning the last 8 straight years. But most of the games have been exceptionally watchable (three of the games have gone to overtime, and it’s almost always been high-scoring), and this should be fun.
Expectations in College Station are now sky-high that the No. 8 -ranked Aggies are good enough to get into the College Football Play-Off (hint: They aren’t), but there are still questions about A&M’s secondary. Offenses complete passes against the Aggies 72.7% of the time, and if Feleipe Franks can be manageable, he could cause the Aggies problems. On the other side of the ball, Arkansas aren’t world-beaters, but they’ve been a hell of a lot better than recent years. Grant Morgan should be a Butkus Award finalist, and the Razorbacks have been ballhawks so far this season. But while they are better against the pass, they are susceptible to the run (4.4 yards per rush given up) – which will mean that we can expect Isaiah Spiller to be fed all night long.
PREDICTION: Texas A&M! Ninth straight! Aggies by 10. Texas A&M 31, Arkansas 21.
3. No.5 Georgia (-17, O/U 47.5) at Kentucky
Missouri just gave Georgia the gameplan to beat Kentucky: Stifle the run game, and make Terry Wilson throw. Terry Wilson is fine with his legs, but throwing-wise, he’s a lower-tier SEC QB at best. So if Georgia do what Georgia do, they’ll stack the box to stop the running game of Chris Rodriguez, Asim Rose and Wilson himself, and make the Wildcats QB throw the ball. And their secondary will then cause havoc. On the other side of the ball, Kentucky’s got the hosses in the secondary, so Georgia will try to make sure that they give the ball to Zamir White (a lot) and keep Stetson Bennett from over-throwing it. If they stick to the gameplan, this is going to be ugly. Also, I think we are all secretly praying that it won’ t be as bad as last year’s game.
PREDICTION: Georgia 31, Kentucky 10.
4. Missouri at No.10 Florida (-12 1/2 Over/Under 61 1/2)
We wouldn’t normally be particularly interested in this game had Missouri been falling down the trajectory that we thought they would after the Tennesse game, but now the Tigers have won two in a row, and they are facing a Gators team who will have had limited time to face them because of a stream of COVID-19 positive cases, stemming from – how to do we put this – Gators players generally not giving a crap about COVID-19 (Dan Mullen doesn’t seem to care either, but that’s another story).
Anyway, the problem Missouri is going to have is facing Florida’s vertical game. Kyle Trask throwing to Kyle Pitts and Kadarious Toney is going to cause Missouri fits. But on the other side of the ball, the way that Eli Drinkwitz has managed to get Larry Roundtree III the ball and used him and the offensive line to control the ball has been eyebrow-raising….especially against a Kentucky team that was meant to be superior on the offensive line.
PREDICTION: It’s close, but Florida closes it out with a late touchdown in the fourth quarter. Florida 38, Missouri 28.
5. Ole Miss (-16 1/2 Over/Under 64) at Vanderbilt
Ole Miss was very unfortunate to lose their game to Auburn last week – a notion that cost Lane Kiffin $25,000 for criticising SEC Officials, but there has been a comment that Ole Miss does make its own luck sometimes. This Ole Miss side has an offensive side from heaven but a defense from hell, and it shows. They just miss, miss and miss tackles.
With Vanderbilt, they FINALLY can put together a team that hasn’t been drilled by COVID-19, so we expect them to be better….but not that much better.
PREDICTION: Ole Miss by 20. Ole Miss 41, Vanderbilt 21.
6. Mississippi State at No.2 Alabama (-30 1/2 Over/Under 64)
Everyone’s going to talking any awful lot about the injury to Jaylen Waddle, but Alabama still has two future first round picks in DeVonta Smith and John Mechie, and they’ve got a Heisman candidate in Najee Harris. Meanwhile, they face a Mississippi State side which is an absolute shitshow, with its best player (Kylinn Hill) deciding to opt out of the 2020 season and prepare for the NFL (he’ll presumably a 2nd-to-3rd round pick).
PREDICTION:This one won’t be close. At all. Alabama 58, Mississippi 10