Can Auburn turn things around? Week 5 Preview
While CBS will be headlining Alabama vs Tennessee, the key game for the weekend will once against be involving Auburn, as pressure once agains rises against Gus Malzahn when the Tigers go to Ole Miss.
Otherwise, it’s South Carolina playing LSU and Kentucky travelling to Missouri.
It’s not the weakest SEC slate around, but it’s certainly one of the lightest…..
So here are our games that we’re interested in. We’re going to be amusingly watch some out-of-conference teams now, as THE OHIO STATE UNIVERSITY’S BACK WHICH IS BIGGER THAN ALL OF COLLEGE FOOTBALL, YOU KNOW?
- Auburn (-3 1/2, Over/Under 71) at Ole Miss
Gus Bus vs Lane Train: A referendum on head coaches is a SEC Tradition like no other. Not that it will matter, because no-one’s getting fired.
As soon as Ole Miss lost to Arkansas and Matt Corral put up six interceptions, social media used to buzz with jokes about the falling of the ‘Lane Train’. People made exactly the same comments – as per every Auburn season about this time of year – about “The Gus Bus” after Auburn lost South Carolina last week.
The fact is this: Ole Miss’ loss to Arkansas was mostly self-caused, and Auburn’s not going to fire Gus Malzahn in a COVID-19 year.
Auburn has deep problems. Their offensive line might be OK, but Bo Nix’s lack of decision-making has been comedic, and the offense is fuming (we could see this when Seth Williams started to yell at Bo Nix on the sideline during the Carolina game). Fun fact: Nix’s biggest problem hasn’t only been Chad Morris. It’s also been an offense that drops the ball, misses assignments, and just simply isn’t cohesive. Is it the fact that the team was so low on numbers in August because of COVID-19 because it’s not the polished product, or are they just crap? If Auburn wins, it’ll be because of the run game: They’ll give it their most explosive running back (Tank Bigsby), who’s averaging 75 yards a game but will face an Ole Miss D that’s given up 265 yards per game.
On the Ole Miss side, the deep problems aren’t really deep. They are plain to see: The defense is pretty miserable. The offense is fun to watch, but faced by a good defensive problem, you get to see where the issues are. Matt Corral will try and be the hero, and he’s probably not as good as people think he is.
PREDICTION: Auburn by 7. It’s a struggle, but it’s high-scoring. Auburn 51, Ole Miss 44.
2. Kentucky (-5, O/U 47 1/2) at Missouri
Kentucky could be 4-0 going into this game. They were screwed out a touchdown against Auburn that would have given them the lead, and missed an extra point in overtime against Ole Miss. Against them is a 1-2 Missouri side who is still riding a bit of joy after the LSU victory.
The Wildcats are very steady, ballhawks in the secondary (they are second in the country with 10), and they have the rushing game to punish the opposition with Chris Rodriguez, Asim Rose and dual-threat QB Terry Wilson. If Missouri’s defense can actually stop the rushing offense a bit and make Terry Wilson throw, then trouble will be caused….because Terry Wilson isn’t a very good quarterback.
On the other side of the ball, we don’t know what we’re going to get from Missouri. Missouri – as has been mentioned on some podcasts – may have shown all of their cards against LSU, and therefore Kentucky will know what to expect. What we do know is that finally Missouri will be at full strength after numerous COVID-19 quarantines for the first time this season – but will that mean more drops in the wide receiving corps (the trouble with the first two games) or the same solid receiving that people saw against LSU? One thing’s for certain: Kentucky’s secondary won’t be as bad as LSU’s was. QB Connor Bazelek will be anchoring the show, and you should see a lot of running backs Larry Rowntree and Tyler Beattie if Drinkwitz doesn’t want to let the ball fly.
PREDICTION: Kentucky by 10 in an absolute war that the Wildcats start walking away from in the fourth quarter. Kentucky 31, Missouri 21.
3. South Carolina at LSU (-6, O/U 55)
It shows how bad things are at LSU when the Tigers are only favored by 6 against a team that’s generally considered as one of the worst teams in the SEC.
The Tigers will be starting 6-6 freshman QB TJ Finley now Myles Brennan is out injured, and we have no idea what he can do. We know that he was a 3-star, pro-style recruit who was ranked 19th in the country at his position, and the best QB in Louisiana. According to 247-Sports, he threw for over 2,500 yards in his senior year of high school with 21 TDs, 9 INTs and a completion rate of 57%. They added about what Finley is, using words such as “elite height”, “arm that matches the size”, “whips the ball out with ease” but noted that he needs to have a quicker ball release, and lacks mobility. If he does well, he may well challenge Brennan for the future crown.
Finley will still have the receiving weapons there. Terrace Marshall Jr, Arik Gilbert and grossly-quick-but-grossly-underused Keyshon Boutte will cause anyone’s secondary problems, but when he’s on the sideline, they’ll be looking at a defense that has seemed uninterested all season long. Bearing in mind that they are coming against a South Carolina side who’s got a capable wide receiving corps (led by Shi Smith) and a strong rusher in Kevin Harris (one of the SEC’s biggest revelation’s this season), Finley may be required to dig his side out of a mess drive after drive after drive.
PREDICTION: This will be fun, but we’re calling for a baptism of fire for Finley, and more pressure on Ed Orgeron. South Carolina by 4. South Carolina 48, LSU 44.
4. Alabama (-22, Over/Under 66) at Tennessee
We’ll put this one out there. We’ll take Alabama to beat Tennessee by more than 22, but we’re not sure if the Crimson Tide will want to drop what they should on Tennessee, because Nick Saban doesn’t seem to like running the score up on anyone if they aren’t in the FCS.
I could try and conjure up some reasons why Alabama’s going to get some problems at Rocky Top on Saturday afternoon. I could talk about a redemption game for Jarrett Guarantano, his offensive line and QB coach Chris Weinke. I could talk about Jeremy Pruitt and about the fact that the major reason for the awful loss against Kentucky wasn’t anyone’s fault so much as looking ahead to the THIRD SATURDAY IN OCTOBER, and they didn’t appreciate that Kentucky’s secondary might gobble up easily thrown balls from their opposition.
But I can’t. Alabama’s going to absolutely kill Tennessee. Jeremy Pruitt’s going to start Jarrett Guarantano, who’s going to start OK but will have to play ‘catch up’ after Alabama piles on the points at speed. We don’t know how Tennessee’s going to stop Alabama’s wide receivers (I mean, no-one else can!), let alone Najee Harris. The only way Tennessee can stay close is follow Georgia’s footprint, which was punching their way using their running game. As soon as Georgia got away from that in the third quarter trying to chase the game, they lost the ball control they had. Tennessee’s has the running back stable in Eric Gray and Ty Chandler, but if they put the ball in Guarantano’s hands…….Dear Lord.
PREDICTION: More cigars on Rocky Top….for the opposite team. Alabama by 38. Alabama 48, Tennessee 21.