Week 11 Preview: Can Arkansas nuke LSU’s SEC West plans?
OK. So there’s going to be a fun game in Oxford at 2.30pm God’s time when Alabama goes to Ole Miss to play. There’s the Nick Saban v Lane Kiffin experience (both united over their hatred of Jimbo Fisher), and there’s the old lines getting trotted out about Alabama being on their knees.
But in our view, the biggest game of the week isn’t that. It’s LSU’s trip to Arkansas in a game that could be a Hangover Saturday for the Tigers.
However bad Arkansas was in the game against Liberty, they could have tied in the final seconds. And with KJ Jefferson, watch out.
Elsewhere, Georgia goes to Mississippi State, Missouri’s ‘great-defense-but-no-offense’ travels to ‘All-Offense-Poor-Defense’ Tennessee, South Carolina goes to Florida in a game that could be under-the-radar good, Texas A&M and Auburn will both try to stop their respective rots in a match-up on The Plains (of Alabama), and there’s Vanderbilt v Kentucky, which The Jefferson Sports Pilot game at 11am.
So here are the games in order of interest:
- No.7 LSU (-3.5 O/U 62) v Arkansas: This is one of the games of the day – that should have been a night game and yet it’s on at 11am God’s time. Everyone is bowing down to the Tigers after they beat Alabama in a ballsy overtime move. Suddenly Brian Kelly has turned things around in Baton Route, and they are set to for a play-off place in 2002 and maybe 2023. Of course, none of that is true. LSU was fine-but-not-great all season until the Alabama game, when they got the script right. On the other hand, Arkansas has been frighteningly underwhelming. But don’t get us wrong about this Arkansas side: LSU is going to its work cut-out stopping KJ Jefferson and Raheim Sanders. Despite having a pretty bad game against Liberty and having a bad offensive line in general, Sanders has been one of the sensations of the SEC this year, averaging 6.4 yards per carry (No.3 in the SEC) in his SEC-leading 1,100 yard season. LSU on the other hand will be looking at Jaylen Daniels to throw it over the top against an atrocious Arkansas passing defense. This will be fun, and quite the minefield. PREDICTION: Daniels throws it over the top a lot, and Arkansas can’t (quite) recover. LSU 38, Arkansas 34.
- No.9 Alabama (-12 O/U 64.5) at No.11 Ole Miss: Here’s the weird thing about Alabama. They could be unbeaten if a couple of things had rolled their way against LSU and Tennessee. They could have four losses if they hadn’t gotten away with holding against Texas and defensive pass interference against Texas A&M. So two’s just about right, right? Anyway, the disappointment of the Crimson Tide’s season so far doesn’t mean that it’s run for the SEC West is completely done. LSU loses to Arkansas, and everything’s back on the table. As is the play-off. They’ll be looking for the mobility of Bryce Young and Jahymr Gibbs to hurt an Ole Miss side that gives up 220+ yards per game on the floor. Ole Miss has a hell of a running game itself. Quinshon Judkins leads the SEC in touchdowns, rushing attempts and is second in rushing yards (1036). Zach Evans has been more under-the-radar (weirdly) than Judkins, but it doesn’t mean he can’t punch a hole. The danger of the two running backs means that Jaxson Dart can spray the ball around a bit – particularly to Jonathan Mingo. The problem for Ole Miss is that the last time they faced a competent defense that could adjust in the second half, they lost (LSU). And Alabama’s going to be good at making those adjustments. Still, the atmosphere’s in Oxford’s going to be off-the-hook. PREDICTION: Ole Miss covers, Alabama wins. Alabama 45, Ole Miss 35.
- Texas A&M (-1.5 O/U 48.5) at Auburn: If you love a good trainwreck, then this is the game for you. Also, if you love two good running backs, then this is the game for you too. Devon Achane and Tank Bigsby are both awesome. Both players can torch defenses if their O-Lines give them a bit of time, and Texas A&M’s has been better at doing that than Auburn’s. The problem for both sides is that their offenses only average about 5.7 yards/play, and neither of them seem willing to change. With Texas A&M, they’ll be praying for the season to end. We wouldn’t be surprised if players either head for the transfer portal by the time the season is over in an effort to get their heads above the parapet early. In Auburn’s case, there seems to be new life with the Tigers with Cadillac Williams now a fired-up interim head coach. PREDICTION: Auburn wins and breaks its SEC O-fer. Auburn 41, Texas A&M 35.
- Missouri at Tennessee (-20.5 O/U 57): Eli Drinkwitz has a knack of putting out an incompetent quaterback week after week and expecting different results, while Tennessee’s offense was made to look utterly incompetent by Georgia’s push rush. Oh, and Tennessee couldn’t stop the Bulldogs through the air in the first half. And while Vols fans tried to take encouragement for the fact that the Air-Buzzsaw stopped in the second half as Georgia ran the ball down their throats, the fact is that Georgia felt the rain and shut it all down. Tennessee will again face one of the best defenses in college football in Missouri. They are 13th in the country in yards per game, and are Top 20 in every other defensive category. But Missouri is 100th in total yards/per game, where they are 104th in passing offense. In other words, if Tennessee packs the box and stops the run – which they will have learned to do after the Georgia game, Missouri could get routed. PREDICTION: Tennessee wins easily. Tennessee 48, Missouri 21.
- No. 1 Georgia (-16 O/U 53.5) at Mississippi State: Georgia has actually played better in the ‘top games’ than it has against mediocre teams. They could well have lost against Missouri, and they were bad against Kent State, too. So what will they be like against perennial 7-5/6-6 Mississippi State? If Saturday’s game against Tennessee’s anything to go by, then they should win comfortably. They shut down Tennessee’s vaunted offense completely. And Mississippi State throws the ball a TON (Will Rogers leads the SEC in pass attempts, completions, passing yards and passing touchdowns), so you can expect Georgia to mix up coverages and bringing the house. On the other side, Mississippi State’s defense is mediocre, but if Stetson Bennett throws the ball over the top and Emmanuel Forbes is anywhere near it, it could Snag City (Forbes leads the country with 5 INTs). PREDICTION: Bennett does throw an interception, but it won’t matter to Georgia. Dawgs by 31. Georgia 41, Mississippi State 10.
- South Carolina at Florida (-8 O/U 59): Florida won at Texas A&M, but was it really meaningful bearing in mind that 20-odd Aggies players were suffering from the flu, including QB Conor Weigman, who was pulled before a ball was thrown in the place of an awful Haynes King? Was it meaningful because of Jimbo Fisher’s stupid strategy of going for the pass instead of giving the ball to Devon Achane, who was carving up the Gators in the first half? Does Anthony Richardson really have the anvil off his back, and is now back to being a competent QB who now has gone 3 straight games without throwing a INT? We simply don’t know. All we do know is that South Carolina – quite honestly – is very average. Yes, they curb-stomped Vanderbilt and beat Texas A&M, but they’ve generally not been great. Spencer Rattler doesn’t fill anyone with confidence, although the Gamecocks’ confidence should be raised against a Florida passing defense that’s 101st in the country. PREDICTION: Gators win in a fun, high-scoring, Pac-12 style shoot-out. Florida 51, South Carolina 44.
- Vanderbilt at No. 24 Kentucky (-18 O/U 47.5) : We’re going to make this quick because we’ve got The Can to get to. Will Levis should feast on the second-worse pass defense in all of college football. They won’t even need to give the ball to Chris Rodriguez. Vanderbilt needs to stay in it by grinding up some clock – something that they aren’t honestly terrible at doing. PREDICTION: Kentucky 41, Vanderbilt 10.