SEC Preview Week 2: Who wins the old-SWC war?

 

Last week I finished 12-2 straight-up, with the losses from LSU and – you guessed it- Vanderbilt.

It’s easy to look at the SEC schedule and think: “Dear Lord, what a trainwreck of a day. There is NOTHING to watch. My team’s gonna win by 400, so I might watch a quarter of it and then go and watch something else.”

But….

Then if you’re a college football historian, there’s one match-up that you should love: Texas (-7, O/U 56.5) at Arkansas. The Longhorns and Razorbacks have played 78 times when rooted in the old Southwest Conference, including a stretch when they played every year from 1932 to 1991. The Longhorns have owned the rivalry 56-22, but since 2000 – after Arkansas went off to the SEC – Arkansas leads 3-Anyway, to say the least both teams absolutely loathe each other.

Texas recently has had a fire put under it by the arrival of Steve Sarkasian. The Longhorns looked excellent in their victory over ULL, who were also ranked at the time. Texas didn’t make any real mistakes in the game, and the relentless running of Bijan Robinson was fun to watch. Arkansas, on the other hand, spent 3/4 of their game against Rice being absolute drivel, until they flexed their muscles won by 17. But KJ Jefferson & Co are going to have to play a lot better. Their major defensive weapons, Luke Morgan and Bumper Pool, are both going to be suspended for the first half of their game after being ejected for targeting.

PREDICTION: It’s going to be a classic, with Texas squeezing by by 10. 

Also:

  1.  Missouri at Kentucky (-5, O/U 57): Missouri was for the most part absolute drivel against Central Michigan. Although the Chippewas are a pretty useful MAC team, the Tigers looked utterly disorganised. It was obvious that they miss Larry Roundtree and defensively, definitely Nick Bolton. The secondary continued to look lost at times. And if Central Michigan had continued to run the ball (they put up 174 yards before they decided to go ‘pass happy’), they may have scored the upset at Faurot Field. Missouri will be hoping that things will be better at Kentucky – even though they will be facing an offensive line that could see 2-3 players selected in the first 2 rounds of next year’s Draft. Add to that a strong rushing game and a power-QB rusher in Will Levis – who can spin the ball now that he’s got an offensive line who can stop rushers (something he never had at Penn State), and Missouri’s trip to Kentucky looks like a very tall order. PREDICTION: Wildcats roll, 35-14.
  2. Pittsburgh (-3, O/U 56 1/2) at Tennessee: Pittsburgh can’t really teach us anything, other than they routed UMass 51-7. Nor really can Tennessee, for whom Joe Milton is really not a very good quarterback. It’s going to be weird, because Josh Heupel’s going to start Milton, despite the fact that back-up Hendon Hooker has played Pittsburgh TWICE in his career and probably knows something about playing this team. He’s also better. On the other hand, Pitt has Kenny Pickett, who is a tricky quarterback to play against. But will he be able to play against a SEC defense? PREDICTION: Tennessee wins 10 in a low-scorer, 24-14. 
  3.  NC State (-2 1/2 O/U 55 1/2) at Mississippi State NC State did what the ACC did do and crap their pants on Saturday, demolishing South Florida 45-0. However, Mississippi State was very lucky to beat a Louisiana Tech that was hardly world-beaters, pulling it out right at the end after Skip Holtz completely and utterly choked. If NC State beats Mississippi State comfortably, we could the Mike Leach pressure cooker go from ‘warm’ to ‘Hell warm’. To win, Will Rogers is going to have to pass a lot better than his effort on Saturday, and Mississippi State’s going to have to stop the Wolfpack’s two-headed running attack of Zonovan Knight and Ricky Person Jr. PREDICTION: Cookin’ Time. NC State 31, Mississippi State 21. 
  4.  Texas A&M (-17, O/U 50 1/2) at Colorado (Denver). This would have been one of the games of the day if it had been in picturesque Boulder instead of awful NFL Stadium Denver. Seriously, why? WHY? It would have been amazing. A&M fans aren’t happy about having to go there rather than Smoke City, and frankly, nor is anyone apart from the administrations, who obviously pocketed a nice amount for themselves to move the game and screw over the fans. Oh, and as for the game itself? We are excited to see if Haynes King has improved week-on-week after his ‘freshman’ start against Kent State, where he threw for 292 yards, but 3 INTs (and 2 TDs). Colorado tuned up on Northern Colorado on Friday night. If Colorado are going to sniff an upset, they are going to have to stop themselves giving the ball up – they gave Northern Colorado FIVE turnovers. But will Colorado be able to stop Isaiah Spiller and A&M’s tremendous running game? We think not. PREDICTION: Texas A&M wins by 18 (35-17) in a very functional victory.
  5.  South Carolina (-2 O/U 56) at East Carolina: South Carolina looked excellent in their win on Saturday, while East Carolina was atrocious in the second half of their loss against Appalachian State. With South Carolina bringing back Kevin Harris to run at East Carolina, as well as other backfield presences ZaQuandre Wright and MarShawn Lloyd, East Carolina – WHO GAVE UP 226 LAST WEEK – should be dealt with by the third quarter. PREDICTION: South Carolina keeps the Beamer Train Chugging. South Carolina by 20. 
  6. Vanderbilt at Colorado State (-7 O/U 51) Colorado State are so damned bad that we thought ‘There’s no way they could be favored against Vanderbilt’, and yet Vegas seems to believe that Colorado State – who lost 43-23 to South Dakota State (who is one of the best FCS programs out there, but still!) will beat a SEC team (albeit an excremental one who was blown out by ETSU last week. This game – starting at 10pm – has gone from ‘I can’t be bothered’ to ‘must-see viewing for the traincrashery’. PREDICTION: Colorado State wins by 3 in a game that’s more exciting than people have us believe. 
  7.  UAB at Georgia (-24 1/2 O/U 45/12) We love Bill Clark, so we’ll be hoping UAB puts up a good fight in an afternoon battle against the Bulldogs. Georgia will again give the ball to Zamir White. We expect JT Daniels to pass the ball a lot more, but the big question will be: Will UAB be able to do what Clemson did not and score a touchdown? PREDICTION: Georgia by 35 in a 45-10 rout.
  8.  Florida at South Florida (-28 1/2 O/U 58): Florida will be looking to score quickly and early in this one, so that they can give their starters a rest before they face Alabama in The Swamp next week. Don’t get us wrong, USF will be galvanized for this one early, but won’t be on the same level. Remember, USF got thrashed 45-0 at NC State last week. So we’re not expecting much of a fight. PREDICTION: UF hammers the Bulls, and the spread. Florida 51, USF 10
  9.  McNeese State at LSU – No line’s been given by Vegas, so they are expecting LSU to absolutely cruise against the Southland Conference, who lost in a 42-36 classic to West Florida, which is a very useful Division II school. The reason why it’s remotely interesting is to see if the tackling has improved in the LSU secondary. We’re not saying it’ll be remotely close, but it’s something to watch if you really, really care.

And then there’s Mercer’s trip to Alabama, and Alabama State’s trip to Auburn, will both be practical walkovers, with both sides hoping to avoid injury before bigger match-ups in Week 3 (Alabama goes to Florida, Auburn goes to Penn State). There is no betting advice because there’s no line being given by Vegas.