The SEC Championship Game: Preview and Predictions

The Super Bowl 2019 has arrived!

Yes, it’s the SEC Championship Game. While it seems a bit of a relief to have someone other than Alabama or Auburn as the SEC West’s representative (LSU is there for the first time since 2011), Georgia seems to be installed in The Big Game, having been there for the last three consecutive years (1-2 record).

This year, there’s all to play for.

LSU, who are No.2 in the nation behind Ohio State, will definitely go to the College Football Play-Off with a win over Georgia (and probably will get in anyway!), while No. 4 Georgia will definitely get in with a win over LSU, because the Committee are unlikely to jump Utah or Oklahoma over them, despite the Bulldogs’ stunningly-awful loss to South Carolina, which should be punished really more than it has been.

The only sad thing about this awesome match-up is that Gary Danielson’s going to be on the call with Brett Nessler.

HOW WILL LSU WIN?

LSU’s offense is amazing. There’s nothing else to say. Joe Burrow is playing like a Heisman winner, picking defenses apart for 4,336 yards and 44 touchdowns with a 78.6% passing average. Because he can scramble too, he has run for 248 yards and 3 TDs – something he would be well-advised not to do against a very, very good Bulldogs defense who will be keyed-in to stopping him in any way, shape or form.

Burrow’s receivers are exceptional, with J’Marr Chase (1,457 rec yards, 17 TDs) and Justin Jefferson (1,092 rec yards, 13 TDs) leading the way. Clyde Edward-Helaire – the hero from the win against Alabama – leads the way out of the backfield, putting up 1,233 yards and 16 TDs on top of 338 yards receiving (1 TD). Burrow also has two receivers (Thaddeus Moss, Terrance Marshall Jr) who have 400 yards per person receiving each, with Marshall putting up 8 TDs.

The key to the offense has been off the field with offensive coordinating mastermind Joe Brady, who is from the Joe Moorhead coaching tree from Penn State, went over to the New Orleans Saints and then plopped into Death Valley at a time when LSU was searching for something good offensively. Since then, LSU’s offense – which has actually been more balanced that people give it credit for – has been unstoppable, scoring 48.7 points per game.

But while we’ve droned on a lot about the offense, LSU’s defense is going to have to show up to the party. Until the Texas A&M game last week, it didn’t. Of course, you could argue that the 38 against Vanderbilt was because of garbage time, but the secondary was hardly great against Florida, Alabama or Texas, either. However, against Texas A&M it all came together. LSU spent all night in Kellen Mond’s backfield, sacking him 6 times, defending 6 passes, and grabbing three interceptions (two of them from Mond’s point-of-view were admittedly garbage), and kept the Aggies to just 169 yards total. If LSU’s secondary can perform at this level, then Jake Fromm’s going to have his work cut out – especially as there have been injuries and suspensions at receiver.  And if LSU goes 14 points or 18 points to the good, it’s going to force Georgia OC James Coley’s hand and make Fromm throw – something that he’s not been doing well in the last three games. 

HOW WILL GEORGIA WIN?

Defense, defense, defense. Georgia has prided itself on defense this season (4th in the nation in total yards allowed) – and for good reason. They’ve got the second-best rushing defense in the nation, giving up just 2.54 yards per game, and has just given up ONE rushing touchdown this season (and that was Auburn’s Bo Nix).

Passing-wise, Georgia gives up 185 yards per game, and they are ranked 8th in total passing touchdowns given up (11th). They don’t intercept the ball all that much (6 all year, good for 109th in the nation). Interestingly enough, the defense has been sorely tested when Kirby Smart has decided to let his players play soft coverage, and quarterbacks and made 15-20 yard plays. When Georgia’s let the – excuse the pun – Bulldogs loose, any offensive line would do well to stop them. They aren’t big sackers of players (11 all season), but they can really pressure a QB. Teams have been able to convert 3rd downs just 28% of the time (49 successes in 175 tries this year), which is excellent.

On the other side of the ball, the Bulldogs will look to control the ball for what will seen an interminable amount of time against the quick-strike character of the LSU offense. The machine will whirr, picking up 3 yards and a cloud of dust. That’s why they are ranked 16th in the country in time of possession, but never seem to blow anyone out. Some might call it conservative, but others would call it “Grind you the **** down”. Against a LSU defense that’s given up 12 TDs on the ground and allows 124.50 yards per game, it will be interesting to see the dynamics. D’Andre Swift – even though he’s injured with a shoulder contusion – and Brian Herrien will be expected to pick up a lot of slack.

Passing-wise, it’s obvious who has the edge. As mentioned, Cager’s not playing (ankle), and nor will we see 30 minutes of Pickens (fight during Georgia Tech game). Cager and Pickens were far and away the top receivers for the Bulldogs, so the responsibility will fall on Demetrius Robertson and Dominick Blaylock to pick up some slack. Also needing to pick up the slack will be Fromm, who has completed under 50% of his throws in each of each last four games. The good thing for Georgia is that while Fromm might miss a few passes, if he doesn’t see an opportunity, he’s not one to try and thread the needle. He’s been intercepted just three times all year- and all of them came in an awful game against South Carolina. Having said that, Fromm might be forced to pass a lot more if Georgia is chasing, and that will put him well out of his comfort zone of 30 attempts.

AND SO WHO’S GOING TO WIN?

The spread’s of 7.5 points in favour of LSU. Georgia’s going to try and grind LSU on the ground, and LSU will be facing a markedly better defense than it has all year. If you’re expecting a blow-out, it’s not going to happen. Georgia’s defense is too good for that.

LSU wins by 10. LSU will lead by a touchdown going into the 4th quarter and hit a field goal to put this one away, and go into the College Football Play-Off as the No.1 team in the nation.