Georgia – Alabama SEC Championship Game Preview

How are you not excited? The 2018 SEC Championship Game between Georgia and Alabama will pit two of the biggest – if not the biggest – players in the SEC.

It’s a rematch of the 2018 National Championship Game – the greatest game of the season last year.

It’s a rematch of mentor vs mentee. It’s trying to stay perfect vs the battle for the fourth play-off spot.

It’s Georgia versus Alabama.

Georgia is a 13-point underdog, and that’s not really surprising. A lot of people think Vegas is being kind.

THE SEASON SO FAR

This season, Alabama has been perfect. The Crimson Tide are 12-0 , and they’ve made it look easy, beating every team by a margin of 35.2 points per game. Sure, it’s been helped by the fact that only LSU have surprised on the upside this year and they got Texas A&M just after the Aggies had played in a WAR against Clemson, but still….wow. The clash with LSU was the most-hyped game of the season, and yet the Tide made it look comfortable. Ironically, the Crimson Tide’s biggest challenge was The Citadel, who went in at half-time in Tuscaloosa to the joy of many and the outrage of many with a 10-10 tie. The Crimson Tide adjusted, and the game was over by the third quarter.

Georgia this season, have been a team that started relatively OK, and then after getting thumped at LSU, have put on the after-burners and averaged nearly 42 points a game. For some games they’ve racked up the points early, and others – like the Florida and Auburn games – it’s been the slow-burner before the eventual pounding that’s left opposition fans heading for the exits early.

THE ATTACKING FORCES

Everyone’s going to have their eyes on presumptive Heisman winner Tua Tagovailoa. He’s been throwing on a dime all year long, he manages to dodge sacks and pressure like he’s got eyes in the back of his head, and can scramble like a maniac. That’s why he’s thrown for 3,100 yards and 32 touchdowns – in games that have generally required him throwing for three quarters. Of course, he’s helped by an exceptional offensive line. There are arguments from every SEC fan out that Alabama’s benefitted from holding all season long (as they always do), and SEC refereeing decisions (the fumble against Mississippi State, the decision not to expel Rakkwon Davis for jumping on a Missouri player and punching him repeatedly), but really when you’ve got one of the best offenses in the land, that seems a bit of a joke.

Helping Tua is sensational wide receiver Jerry Jeudy (over 1,000 yards), although Jaylen Waddle, Henry Ruggs, Irv Smith and Devonta Smith have all had 500 yards or more, too.

On Georgia’s side is Jake Fromm. After his embarrassing performance against LSU, questions were being asked about whether he should be replaced with star frosh Justin Fields. But Fromm’s answered the call, throwing only 1 interception and 10 TDs. He’s not as mobile as Tua, though, which could be a problem if Georgia’s offensive line gets pressured as much as we think they’ll be.

Receiving-wise, Georgia doesn’t have one standout receiver. Mecole Hardman’s the only player to have gone over 500 yards, but there are 8 who have grabbed over 100 – and one of them’s a RB.

RUNNING IT RIGHT AT YOU

The reason why Georgia hasn’t needed Jake Fromm to throw for 3,000 yards (he’s thrown for 2,300) is that the Bulldogs have a nasty rushing attack. Ranking 11th in the nation, the Bulldogs have put up over 259 yards per game, mostly thanks to the young, bruising pair of D’Andre Swift (962 yards, 9 TDs) and Elijah Holyfield (896 yards, 7 TDs). We think that Georgia will bring up Alabama’s average of rushing yards conceded (114 per year – good for 15th nationally). Also, watch for some plays where Fromm comes out and Fields comes in in an effort for Kirby Smart to add some more speed at the quarterback level. Smart can’t afford to be conservative, or he’ll get blown apart (see Orgeron, Ed). 

We mentioned Tua out of the pocket, and he’s brought the dangerous rushing element to his game (211 yards, 5 TDs), but we think that Saban’s going to be a bit more careful letting him run the ball – especially when Georgia’s ‘D’ is probably the best he’ll face all year. But even if Tua’s not throwing the ball as brilliantly as usual, OC Mike Locksley (even if he doesn’t plump for the Maryland job, he’ll be around on Saturday) will be able to use the exceptional pairing of Damien Harris, Najee Harris and Josh Jacobs. While no player has gone for over 1,000 yards, none of the three has gone for less than 400, either. And this is in what is meant to be a passing offense.

THE BIG KEY: As first said by SB Nation’s Bill Connelly, Georgia had better be able to take its chances. When it comes to the red zone, Georgia’s horrible. They’ve been horrific inside the 10 and even worse inside the 3. 

AND THEN THERE’S THE DEFENSE

After their abysmal showing against LSU, Georgia regrouped, got more physical, and have been lights out against their opposition. They have been very good (12th in the nation), but like the Crimson Tide, they’ve been getting better each game.

Georgia’s secondary, starring Richard Lecounte and Deandre Baker have been excellent, helping UGA to concede just 300 yards per game, which is very similar to Alabama’s secondary.

The question for Georgia is whether they’ll be able to stop Alabama’s offense, which is quite capable of going four or five wide – giving Tua easy options for a first down or bigger.

Alabama’s defense has been getting better and better at a time when some were worried. Its shutting out of LSU in Baton Rouge (again) was tremendous, with Quinnen Williams time and again proving why he’s the best defensive player in the country (7 sacks, 58 tackles, 16 tackles for loss). Dylan Moses and sack-leader Isaiah Buggs (9) can also bring the house, too.

While we don’t imagine that the game will take place between the 30s, it’ll be a lot of fun watching future NFL talent on both sides.

THE X-FACTOR

Georgia hasn’t been tested for three quarters for a while, and Alabama hasn’t been tested for three quarters all season. That means that both sides are going to be fresh. The reason why Alabama’s tackling and interception stats aren’t higher is that most of the time they don’t play in the third quarter. This will be both sides’ fourth-quarter test.

THE OTHER X-FACTOR

Sadly, as has been the case all season, the X-Factor is going to be the SEC referees. The SEC refs at times this season have missed or wrongly called targeting, fumbles and pass interferences, and have changed games with idiotic holding calls, too. It’s been a mess. Hopefully, they’ll let both sides play (ie give out only obvious pass interference calls), review fumbles and get targetting calls rights), but with them, nothing can be trusted.

PREDICTION

Alabama 27, Georgia 14 in a great game that has you on the edge of your seat until the Crimson Tide pulls clear in the fourth quarter.