In March we said that star Alabama WR Calvin Ridley was ripe for a rebound from a disappointing 2016. Well, it doesn’t seem this is the case.

Well, this season things are even worse for him. Over the last four weeks Ridley has been thrown to a grand total of 20 times, averaging just five receptions per game at an average of 13.1 yards per reception (262 yards). While that isn’t bad – his 13.1 yards per reception is much better than his averages in his first and second years – if this goes on, he’ll only be thrown to a grand total of 60 times, which will be well below his freshman and sophomore averages.

Also, Ridley’s on course to NOT get to 1,000 yards receiving for the second straight  year (on course for 786 yards), as Nick Saban and OC George Daboll opt to run the ball down people’s guts (and use Jalen Hurts) rather than let Hurts throw and let Ridley into the game.

The problem for Ridley is that Alabama’s offensive line is so good that all the team needs to do is feed running backs to Damien Harris or  Bo Scarborough, run designed plays for Hurts, and the team eats up the yards. Ridley doesn’t get a look-in.

Now, it’s four games in and Ridley’s still Alabama’s top receiver by some margin, and he may well stand out when Georgia plays tougher opponents than they have done in weeks 2-4 (Fresno State, Colorado State, Vanderbilt), but right now, Ridley must be thinking to himself after seeing how other offenses are lighting it up all over the country: How can I look like a future NFL star if I’m not looking like anything in 2017?

Nick Saban’s unlikely to care about Ridley’s NFL future (despite using the NFL as a pitch to all recruits on coming in), because he’s focussed on winning a National Championship. And we entirely get it. But if the numbers don’t stack up, Ridley won’t be looking like a first or second round draft pick – despite being one of the best receivers in college football.

WILL THIS IMPACT HIS NFL FUTURE?

Here’s the good news: Alabama alum Julio Jones only had one year where he had 1,000 yards or more receiving at Alabama. If you don’t believe me, look it up. This was mostly due to Alabama’s sick-nasty rushing attack. Amari Cooper had two years (his freshman and junior) of over 1,000 yards.

The bad news: The difference between Jones, Cooper and Ridley is the fact that Jones and Cooper had competent if not incredible passing quarterbacks, while Ridley has Hurts, who is a far better runner than he is a passer.

SO WHAT’S GOING TO HAPPEN?

It seems likely that Calvin Ridley will leave for the NFL after his junior year. He might leave with a lower amount of yards than Jones and Cooper, and therefore end up a third or fourth-round pick. And come away as one of the best NFL signings of 2018.

 

 

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