Florida: After the glories of 2020….Now what?

Last season was a weird season for Florida.

Florida finished the season winning the SEC East, beating Georgia in the process. They lost a heartbreaker at Texas A&M, saw themselves in a continuing argument with Texas A&M about who should be the country’s 4th-best play-off team….and then lost to heavy underdog LSU at home in a situation that will be a meme for years to come, and then battled Alabama to the end in the SEC Championship Game.

Their bowl game – after their freaks Kyle Pitts and Kadarius Toney – as well as Trevon Grimes – packed up their boots and went to the NFL Draft – ended up with the Gators getting nuked by Oklahoma. Because without those targets, Kyle Trask was hopeless.

So what happens now the cupboard’s pretty bare in 2021?

OFFENSE

We’ve been hearing a lot about Emory Jones. In fact, we’ve heard about Emory Jones and how he might have started at UF, but Kyle Trask took the role in 2019, and Jones was relegated to back-up. Now, the sophomore will be tasked with the Dan Mullen’s offense. The odds with Jones doing well are pretty good – particularly with Mullen helping things along. Mullen’s been a famed quarterback whisperer, putting QB after QB into the league.

But what will be his weapons? Jacob Copeland and Xavier Henderson are both targets. Henderson had 148 yards and a TD on just 6 receipts last year, while Copeland had 23 receptions for 435 yards and 3 TDs. They’ll be aptly backed by Justin Shorter, who had 25 catches for 268 yards and 3 TDs, but simply neither of the three will be an upgrade on what Trask threw to last year. And nor should they be.

What will we will anticipate from the Gators is a more focussed run game. That’s because not only do they have three very able players who can do the job in Dameon Pierce (503 yards, 4 TDs in 2020), Malik Davis (377 yards on 31 carries) and Nay’Quan Wright (213 yds, 2 TDs), but Jones can also run well too. In nine games he ran for 217 yards and a pair of TDs.

Florida returns three starters on the offensive line.

DEFENSE

Todd Grantham is the most overrated defensive coordinator in the SEC and maybe the whole of college football. He’s getting paid $1.8m a year by the Gators – the sixth-most amongst coordinators in the country – and we honestly can’t work out why. His defenses are super-aggressive on 3rd down (the joke is continually ‘third and Grantham”, yet a lot of the time fail. His defense was 83rd in the nation in yards given up, 120th in pass yards given up, and 117th in rush yards given up. Oh, and third-and-Grantham was 72nd in stopped teams on 3rd down, and gave up 30.7 points per game. And although there was a blip in 2019 when his D was actually good, Grantham’s defense was 67th in 2018. He must have the right agent. Oh wait…he does. Jimmy Sexton.

Anyway, he’s back. So good luck, Florida fans.

His drivel of a secondary should be improved from 2021. Oh, wait. It HAS to be improved from 2021. The secondary let in more pass TDs (28) than any SEC school in 2021. Yes, even Vanderbilt. Or LSU. Junior CB Kaiir Elam is going to be focal point of that part of the Gators D. He was certainly the best pass defender on the Gators, with an SEC-leading 11 – almost certainly the reason why he earned All-SEC honors. He’ll be partnered with five-star frosh Jason Marshall Jr, who should start immediately. Marshall was the second-highest rated CB in the nation (it’s gonna be fun next year when he partners up with 4-star freshman CB Julian Humphrey, who’s Gainseville’s top recruit for the next class!).

Elam’s going to have to show a lot of leadership to get the Gators’ head together – especially bearing in mind the offenses they will be facing throughout this season.

Rushing-wise, transfers Antonio Shelton and Daquan Newkirk will be great tackles for the Gators. At least that’s what Grantham hopes will be the case – because the line brings back 3 players that was shredded last year.

Where the Gators are going to be fine is at linebacker – top tacklers Ventrell Miller (52 solo tackles – 4th best in the SEC – in 2020) and Mohamoud Diabate (67th, with 2 Forced fumbles (2nd in the SEC) are both back.

SCHEDULE.

Florida Atlantic

at USF

Alabama

Tennessee

at Kentucky

Vanderbilt

at LSU

Georgia (in Jacksonville)

at South Carolina

Samford

at Missouri

Florida State

Florida will go 2-0 in its first two games, and if the secondary’s not up to much, they’ll get slaughtered in Tuscaloosa against Alabama. They’ll cost through Tennessee, beat Kentucky by the skin of their teeth, and smash Vanderbilt. The trips to LSU and the game against Georgia wouldn’t surprise me if they go 0-2, while the string of games to end the season against South Carolina, Samford, Missouri and Florida are very doable.

PREDICTION

The Gators go 9-3, with losses to ‘Bama, LSU and Georgia. If the defense is as shocking as it was in 2021, then Grantham’s out.