Alabama-LSU re-takes focus of college football: Week 11 SEC Predictions

So, it was a pretty crazy Thursday after all. Baylor was restricted for a quarter-or-so then broke out the whooping stick on Oklahoma. Then, unbeaten Oregon rolled into Stanford….and lost 26-20 in a game that they trailed 26-0 and were owned in.

Anyway, Saturday night’s alright for fighting…..or Alabama to play LSU. The game last year was incredible, but not a lot of people are anticipating the 2013 version from Tuscalossa to be that good.

Anyway, here’s your Week 11 Predictions.

LSU AT ALABAMA

Because of the size of Thursday’s games, the LSU-Alabama has been slightly overshadowed this week. There’s also the fact that LSU’s losses to Georgia and Ole Miss means that they currently stand 13th in the rankings to Alabama’s No.1, with the Tigers really having no hope of going to a SEC Championship Game….unless they win in Tuscaloosa. Tigers coach Les Miles is going to have let it all hang out in Tuscaloosa, which means his offensive line providing enough protection for QB Zach Mettenberger, and then hoping Mettenberger himself regaining the consistency and confidence he had earlier in the season. Mettenberger has two targets in Odell Beckham and Jarvis Landry who are, in my opinion, college football’s best wide receiving tandem. They should test Bama’s secondary like no other team has since Texas A&M. Beckham’s also damned useful from special teams, too.

The key to LSU’s win might well not even be on that side of the ball. They’ve got to stop Alabama’s offense, which features one of college football’s best QBs (AJ McCarron) two incredible running backs (TJ Yeldon and Kenyan Drake), three good wide receivers (Kevin Norwood, Amari Cooper, and DeAndrew White), and a sturdy offensive line. Oh, and a great defense, too.

This should be a great game.

BOTTOM LINE: Alabama’s a 12-1/2 point favorite. We think Alabama wins, but by less than the spread.

AUBURN AT TENNESSEE

Tennessee’s 31-3 thumping by Missouri didn’t turn a lot of heads. People knew that despite their big victory over South Carolina and overtime loss to Georgia, they wouldn’t stand a lot of hope on the road. And it came true. Well, the Volunteers have got the chance of causing a massive upset on Saturday afternoon when they host No.9 Auburn. Of course, they’ll depend on QB Josh Dobbs (in his second career start) having a better game than he did last week, hope he hits his excellent WR Marquez North, and pray that the defence can cause some turnovers against a freight train of an Auburn offence. But you never know – Neyland Stadium hasn’t been an easy place to play this season, folks.

BOTTOM LINE: Auburn’s a 7-1/2 point favorite. We think Auburn wins and beats the spread pretty easily, despite a noisy Neyland.

MISSISSIPPI STATE AT TEXAS A&M

This is the last time that Kyle Field will see Johnny Manziel play on its sacred turf in its old guise (it’s undergoing a $400m redevelopment after this season), because that’s it for the Aggies at home this year. It’s been an adventure, folks. Offensively, the Aggies have been incredible, fun, and a joy to watch – mainly because of Mr Manziel, but also because of the superb wide receivership of Mike Evans. Defensively, they’ve been awful (when your fans celebrate shutting down an awful UTEP side, you know you’ve got issues).

Anyway, Mississippi State goes into A&M after playing pretty well at South Carolina (they had more yardage and time of possession, but ruined their own day committing FIVE turnovers). They’ll have to stop the turnovers to have a prayer of pulling out the upset.

BOTTOM LINE: Texas A&M’s a 19-point favorite. Frankly, we’re keeping more of an eye on the ‘D’, but we think A&M wins by more than the spread.

MISSOURI AT KENTUCKY

The only reason why we’re talking about this is the spread. Despite Kentucky not playing too badly at home and coming off a waxing of Alabama State last week, the Wildcats still haven’t got a win in SEC play (we’ve been lobbying the SEC to get the 0-fer bowl together between them and equally-awful/maybe-even-more-awful Arkansas), and they aren’t very good. Missouri, on the other hand, beat the living daylights out of Tennessee, and have the wide receiving weapons – like L’Damian Washington and Dorial Green-Beckham, who recovered from a crappy Week 9 to come back strongly – to blow this one open early.

BOTTOM LINE: Missouri’s a 13-1/2 point favorite, we think they beat the spread comfortably.

VANDERBILT AT FLORIDA

One of the more interesting games on the SEC plate this week, simply because Florida must be looking and thinking: “How bad can this season get?” (ANSWER: Losing to Vanderbilt), while Vanderbilt had their butts kicked at Texas A&M last time out, and have lost 2 out of the last 3. They are beat-up (although not as beaten-up as UF), and they are on the road.

BOTTOM LINE: Florida favored by 10. With an offense that’s horrific. We think they win by 7 in a game that’s nip-and-tuck all the way through.

ARKANSAS AT OLE MISS

Bret Bielma’s had a poor start to his Arkansas reign, and it’s hardly surprising after the drop-off in talent there was from 2012. But really, they are TERRIBLE offensively. Ole Miss, on the other hand, crushed Idaho after winning a real battle with LSU, and will be salivating at playing a Razorbacks side which doesn’t have a lot of confidence. They also need a quarterback….and a ‘D’ might be nice.

BOTTOM LINE: Ole Miss is a 17-point favorite. We think Ole Miss wins -and beats the spread. Ole Miss by 21.

AND THE GAME WE’RE NOT REALLY INTERESTED IN…

APPALACHIAN STATE AT GEORGIA 

Why? Georgia’s favored to win by 40 against an Appalachian State that’s not the speedster team of 2007. We think they win by…..as many as they want to. They’ve got Auburn to play soon, and will be gearing up for that.